Future City GMU

Method

How the EV Charging Site-Readiness Model Works

A transparent planning-support method for screening candidate public EV charging sites, right-sizing starter installations, and identifying review needs before implementation decisions move forward.

Model Overview & Analytical Tools

Programming environment
Python
Core libraries
pandas, NumPy, and simple rule-based scoring logic for prototype modeling and data preparation.
Outputs
CSV exports, Tableau-ready tables, scenario outputs, and a generated Public EV Charging Planning Report PDF.
Planning use
Early screening, prioritization, right-sizing discussion, and review-need identification.

Model Purpose & Workflow

The model supports early planning decisions for public EV charging candidate sites. It is intentionally designed to help public-sector planners and local government staff systematically compare sites, prioritize starter candidates, identify future expansion needs, and flag specific administrative or engineering review issues early in the process.

How the model flows

The logic follows a straightforward, transparent sequence to transform raw site concepts into actionable planning categories:

Inputs and Scoring Dimensions

Candidate site inputs

The model evaluates a range of planning-screen inputs for each site. Because these are early-stage planning attributes, they may require formal confirmation and are not treated as final verified engineering data. Input categories include:

Core scoring dimensions

Sites are evaluated qualitatively and systematically across six high-level dimensions:

  1. Demand signal: Whether the site appears likely to support sufficient public charging demand based on context and visitation proxies.
  2. Electrical and cost feasibility: Whether the site's electrical capacity, service constraints, and likely implementation complexity support immediate readiness or pose heavy upgrade burdens.
  3. Accessibility and site suitability: Whether site access, ADA spacing considerations, parking layout, and likely charger placement are viable.
  4. Public value and equity: Whether a site supports useful public access, serves the community context well, and offers strategic planning value.
  5. Safety, review, and implementation burden: Whether AHJ, fire codes, structured parking rules, emergency disconnect visibility, or stormwater impacts may complicate or slow down implementation.
  6. Future readiness and scenario sensitivity: Whether a site appears structurally and spatially able to support future demand expansion under varying planning scenarios.

Decision Categories

Based on the scoring dimensions, candidate sites are sorted into one of five decision categories. This helps teams quickly triage which sites warrant immediate detailed engineering study and which should be tabled.

Baseline Model Run Summary (legacy_v2)

The legacy_v2 baseline run of the planning-support prototype yielded the following outputs across the Fairfax City and Prince William County geographies:

12
Candidate sites evaluated
2
Tier 1 starter candidates identified
5
Decision categories applied
15
Tableau-ready data exports generated
0
Blocking validation errors
38
Review items requiring confirmation

Right-Sizing & Review Burden Logic

Right-sizing logic

The model aims to prevent overbuilding while ensuring sites are prepared for the future. It does this by separating capacity into two distinct recommendations:

Note: Right-sizing is a planning-support recommendation. It must always be checked against engineering, utility, procurement, site design, ADA, and permitting review.

Review burden logic

Review burden flags are not failures. They indicate where more information or administrative confirmation is needed before final planning or implementation can proceed. Recurring review fields include electrical service ratings, spare electrical capacity, emergency disconnect visibility, visitor/employee counts, operating hours, parking counts, likely charger placement, and specific garage/fire/AHJ/access reviews for special-use sites.

Current run

Review burden

0 Errors
0 Warnings
38 Review flags
12 Info items

That baseline run has zero blocking validation errors. The 38 review flags are not failures; they identify fields local staff should confirm before proceeding to detailed design.

Scenario Testing

To ensure that future-ready recommendations are resilient, the model tests whether future-ready assumptions remain adequate under different simulated planning conditions.

Scenarios tested in the legacy_v2 sweep. The canonical milestone2_v3 contract carries four scenario names - baseline, base, high, stress_combined:

Results (legacy_v2 sweep)

Scenario testing

The first five scenarios show no future-ready capacity gaps across the candidate sites.

The combined-stress scenario, which layers multiple constraints simultaneously, creates two minor future-ready capacity gaps.

  • PWC002gap 1
  • PWC008gap 1

Outputs & Limitations

The execution of this model generates a suite of planning-support materials, including a comprehensive planning report PDF, visual summaries, site rankings, decision buckets, port recommendations, scenario results, and Tableau-ready CSV exports.

Planning-support artifact only

The outputs from this model support early screening, prioritization, and discussion. They should not be treated as final approval, final design, or a construction-ready determination.

This model does not replace: